Experimental Bets of the Day — 2026-05-16
Status: exploratory, $1-base only. Slice 6 multi-leg wagers are RECOMMENDED-only in v1. 2023 backtest (post chart re-ingest, 2026-04-28) shows DD top_2_box ROI is −5.1% overall (was −30% before base correction); P3 top_2_box is +6.4% positive.
Daily Doubles (top-2 box, $4 per ticket)
| Sequence |
Legs |
Hit Prob |
Note |
| CTM R2 → R3 |
[2,3] / [1,2] |
42.4% |
|
| FP R4 → R5 |
[6,2] / [6,5] |
42.2% |
|
| LAD R4 → R5 |
[1,4] / [2,5] |
40.9% |
|
| FP R5 → R6 |
[6,5] / [4,6] |
39.8% |
|
| DEL R5 → R6 |
[1,2] / [5,4] |
37.5% |
|
Pick 3s (3×3×3 box, $27 per ticket)
| Sequence |
Structure |
Hit Prob |
| EMD R1-2-3 |
[1,4,5] / [4,5,3] / [1,4,5] |
47.2% |
| LAD R4-5-6 |
[1,4,3] / [2,5,4] / [6,2,4] |
45.9% |
| FP R3-4-5 |
[5,6,1] / [6,2,5] / [6,5,4] |
44.6% |
| FP R4-5-6 |
[6,2,5] / [6,5,4] / [4,6,1] |
44.0% |
| LAD R1-2-3 |
[2,4,5] / [5,4,2] / [3,1,4] |
43.1% |
Why these are experimental
- Horizontal multi-leg (DD/P3) remains
RECOMMENDED-only in v1. Corrected 2023 backtest (post 2026-04-28 chart re-ingest + per-pool base fix): DD ROI −13.8% (coverage) / −5.1% (top_2_box); P3 ROI −2.6% (coverage) / +6.4% (top_2_box, positive).
- DD
top_2_box is the production default. Per-track variance still wide; use per-track judgment before committing real capital.
- P3 strategy switch to
top_2_box is the queued next change — backtest now shows positive ROI but live validation is still TBD.
- Recommended use: $1 base, track CLV + hit rate for calibration.